When Top 4 Ain’t Enough

The league season is over for Arsenal and all that is left is the FA Cup Final against rival and this season’s English Premier League Champion Chelsea. This is Chelsea’s third EPL Championship since I started following the League in 2009-2010. Remarkably it was a defeat to Arsenal in September that changed the course of Chelsea’s season. And in a way changed Arsenal’s too. This is the first time in 20 years that Arsenal missed out on a Top 4 finish and failed to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. Arsenal hasn’t won the League since “The Invincibles”  2003-2004 season.

There were many common themes throughout the season for Arsenal but the most costly was “poor defending”. It started on the opening weekend of the season and was constantly a problem in various matches. Arsenal’s defense was especially treacherous against the other “Top 6” teams in the League. The Gunners allowed 18 goals (14 in 5 defeats) against the other clubs in the Top 6 while only scoring 15. Arsenal failed to win any of their away games against the other teams in the Top 6. They also allowed the most league goals (44) amongst teams in the Top 6. So by season’s end there was no surprise the Gunner’s struggles against the top clubs continued.

Record versus the Top 6 (Arsenal finish) : W- 2 D- 3 L- 5

Premier League Standings (Top 6 Final Standings)

Team                    MP         W            D             L              GF          GA          GD          PTS

Chelsea               38           30           3              5              85           33           52           93          

Tottenham         38           26           8              4              86           26           60           86 

Man. City             38           23           9              6              80           39           41           78

Liverpool             38           22           10           6              78           42           36           76

Arsenal                 38           23           6              9              77           44           33           75

Man Utd              38           18           15           5              54           29           25           69

*MP – Matches Played, W – Wins (3 points for wins), D – Draws (1 point for draws), L – Losses (0 points for losses), GF- Goals For, GA – Goals Allowed, GD – Goal Differential, PTS – Points

 

The struggle against in the Top 6 was enough to wreck the season but Arsenal took it a step further and dropped points against teams in the middle to bottom third of the league standings. I often listen to the Men In Blazers Podcast and on many occasions one of the co-host – Michael Davies – always talks about how Arsenal fared against teams in the lower half of the table(standings). In recent years Arsenal has been seen as a club that only showed up against weaker opponents. Until this season that was one thing Arsenal could hang their hats on during League play. As you see above, Arsenal finished 18 points behind this season’s champion. Below I singled out 7 matches versus teams outside of the Top 6 (in the final standings) where Arsenal dropped points. The Gunners were only able to get 3 of the possible 21 points available.

Leicester City 0-0 (a)

Middlesbrough 0-0 (h)

Everton 2-1 (a)

Bournemouth 3-3 (a)

Watford 2-1 (h)

West Bromwich Albion 3-1 (a)

Crystal Palace 3-0 (a)

These matches occurred at different points in the season and there are too many ifs, ands, and buts to consider to  say “what if?” But it was unacceptable for the manager Arsene Wenger – in a recent interview –  to blame other clubs when Arsenal only have themselves to blame for how this season played out. Now all that is left is the FA Cup Final which will be followed by a bunch of questions that need to be answered quickly. Arsenal fans can only hope that they take care of those matters better than they handled the season.

Today’s post was inspired by Rick Ross’s song Sixteen

 

Table and stats courtesy of

https://www.google.com/#q=english+premier+league+table&spf=1495559620978

The Arsenal App on Android and iOS

 

 

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When Top 4 Ain’t Enough

Is This The Year?

Here we are in the winter of 2016 and Arsenal currently sits at the top of the English Premier League standings with the 16 (league) matches still to be played. Many pundits have insisted that if Arsenal are going to break their title drought in the EPL then this is the time to do it.  Mainly because the first half of the season was unlike any in recent memory or in other words “the teams that normally contend for the title have been terrible.”  So with that in mind I get to spend the next 5 months trying not to lose anymore hair.

Screen Shot 2016-01-19 at 7.42.43 PM

 

Arsenal has its next three matches at home. League matches versus Chelsea and Southampton with an FA Cup tie against Burnley sandwiched in between. The Gunners will be looking to rebound after two tough draws at Liverpool (3-3) and Stoke (0-0). Most fans will agree that the match at Liverpool should’ve been a win. Earlier this season, Arsenal lost 2-0 at Chelsea and were thrashed 4-0 at Southampton in December. These two matches will be key as it will give Arsenal a chance to get Alexis Sanchez – HOPEFULLY – back on the pitch. We’ll also see the return of the great Mesut Ozil as he sat out on Sunday with a foot injury. This stretch of matches could also bring about the first appearance of new signing Mohamed Elneny. If Elneny is able to bring on some positive play then it would give Arsene Wenger the opportunity to rotate his squad and rest some players. Another positive would be the return of Tomas Rosicky and Danny Welbeck but they seem to be a few more weeks away.

As if trying to win the Premier League isn’t enough, the team will face Barcelona in February and March in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League. This will prove to be a crucial stretch for the Gunners as they could play as many as 12 matches (consisting of EPL, FA Cup, and CL) in 41 days versus the likes of Leicester City, Barcelona (twice), Manchester United, Tottenham, and Everton to name a few. It’s easy to say that this will definitely determine whether Arsenal will be in the running for the title. I want them to be competitive in the matches versus Barcelona and have a good showing. If wins are there, go for them but most importantly don’t get anyone hurt. I’d like to see them win the FA Cup matches. The match above mentioned against Burnley (please win this to avoid a replay at Burnley) and then a possible Quarterfinal match versus an opponent TBD. They’re currently going for a three-peat in the competition having won in 2014 and 2015. That leaves the seven league matches that are split 4 away and 3 home. All 21 points would be great but if I were being realistic then I’d take 15-18 points.

The closer Arsenal is to 20 points total from those 7 EPL matches the better. They currently sit at 44 points after 22 matches. My gut feeling is that the club that gets closest if not to 85 points by the end of the season will win the title. That’d mean that the Gunners would need 21 points in their final nine EPL matches. Then there is the whole goal differential situation if the decision has to come to a tiebreaker. Petr Cech’s clean sheet on Sunday was a good start. I also think the squad will find the back of the net more often as the 2nd half of the season progresses. The return of the players I mentioned earlier could play a big role in that. It’s been rough at times but I’ll take the (1-0 or 2-1) results as long as it is a win. May 7th could be a big day in the Premier League but I don’t want to get too far ahead – as I’ve already done – being that it’s only mid January. Hopefully when I return to talk about the last quarter of the season it’ll be positive for Arsenal and my hair!

Is This The Year?